Cobb Reporter

Seventy-seven steals? Fifty-six home runs? A 22-game winner on the mound? After the first half of the 2024 season, which featured more than half of the 162-game schedule, many MLB stars are on pace to post significant counting stats over the full year.

But how likely are those players to maintain their performance?

Here are seven of the most exciting on-pace stats from the first half, ranked by their likelihood of being achieved. All projections come from FanGraphs.

1. Elly De La Cruz, Reds

On pace for: 77 stolen bases

The Cincinnati speedster has a chance to become the first player to steal 75 or more bases since José Reyes swiped 78 for the Mets in 2007. Ronald Acuña Jr. came close with 73 steals in his historic 2023 NL MVP season, but De La Cruz’s pace is higher after 46 steals in 96 games before the All-Star break. The rule changes introduced before the 2023 season have certainly helped, but De La Cruz is on his way to a rare season in terms of steals. He has been caught nine times in 55 attempts so far, so if he continues without getting caught significantly more, 75 (or more) steals is definitely possible.

2. Aaron Judge, Yankees

On pace for: 56 home runs

It’s challenging to hit 56 home runs in a season, but it’s a testament to Judge’s production that he seems a fairly safe bet to do so. The Yankees slugger set the American League single-season home run record with 62 in 2022 and hit 37 homers in 106 games last season. At the All-Star break, Judge had 34 homers in 96 games. Only two players have hit more than 55 homers since Ryan Howard smashed 58 for the Phillies in 2006 -- Judge in 2022 and Giancarlo Stanton (59) in 2017. Judge has been historically hot after a poor first month of this season and has a real shot at hitting at least 56 homers.

3. Gunnar Henderson, Orioles

On pace for:132 runs

Typically at the top of a stacked Orioles lineup, Henderson has been scoring consistently all season long. He has already scored an MLB-high of78 runs, with28 of those coming on his own home runs. He could be one of four players over three seasons to top130 runs: joining Acuña (149) and Freddie Freeman (131)in2023 and Judge (133)in2022.Hendersonis on pacefor132runs,would be themostbyan Oriole since Roberto Alomar hit that exact mark backin1996.Withtheyoungshortstop’stalentandtheskilled hitters behind him,it seemsemminently reasonable.

4.RyanHelsley Cardinals Onpacefor:54saves Nopitcherhas savedmorethan50games since EdwinDíazrecorded57saves(tiedforsecondmostinAL/NLhistory)backin2018withtheMariners.Helsleyhasanexcellentshottoc hangethat,havingsaved32oftheCardinals’50winspriortotheAll-Starbreak.Thehard-throwingrightyrelieverhasa2 .36ERAand48strikeoutsinhis42inningspitchedin2024.Workloadcouldbeaconcern:Helsleyhasneverthrownmorethan64⅔ inningsinasingleseason,andhewilllikelyhavetosurpassthatmarktohithison-paceprojectionof54saves.Ifso ,hewouldbejustoneofftheNationalLeaguerecordof55 ,sharedbyJohnSmoltz(2002)andEricGagne(2003).

5.JoséRamírez Guardians Onpacefor:131RBIs TheRBImarkforwhichRamíreziscurr entlyonpaceisn’tanythinguncommon :JudgeandPeteAlonsoeachdroveinexactly131runsi n2022,andMattOlsonhad139RBIslastyear.Ramírez droveinacareer-high126runsi n2022,andhis77RBIsthisseasonputhimonpacefor131(tiedwithMarcellO zunaforsecond ,behindJudgeat141).Battingthird(sometimessecond )behindMLBbattingaverageleaderStevenKwanhascertainlyhelpedtheGuardiansstardriveinruns,andJ-Ramisalsoonpacefo racareer-high-tying39home runs.Ramírezh asastrongchancetobethefirstClevelandhitterwith130ormoreRBIs sinceJuanGonzalezhad140i n2001.

6.GarrettCrochet WhiteSox Onpacefor:248strikeouts CrochetledMLBwith150strikeoutsintheseason’sfirsthalf,reachingthatmark injust107⅓innings.Inningswillprobablybethebiggestchallengefo rCrochet--whohadneverstartedanMLBgamebeforeOpeningDay20 -24-inreachinghison-paceprojectionof248strikeouts.SpencerStrider(281 strikeouts)i n2023andGerritCole(257)i n2022bothbeatthatnumber ,asdidRobbieRayi n2021andsixdifferentpitchersi n2019.Strider,ColeandRayhaveallbeensignificantlyaffectedbyinjuriesthisseason ,ashavemanyotherhigh-strikeoutstarters,s oCrochetcouldbetheonlypitchertoreach250K’sthisseason.

7.ChrisSale Braves Onp acef or:22w ins Withrelieverspitchingmoreinningst hanever,w inshavegoneoutoffashioni nrecentyears.Therehasonlybeenone20-gamewinnerineachofthepastthree seasons,andthelastpitchertowin22games--Sale’scurrentpa ce--wasRickPorcellowiththeRedSox i n2016.SalehasaMLB-best13winsinhisfirst20startsthisseason,buthe’salreadythrownmoreinningsi n2024thanhehasinas easonsince2019.Evenifhishealthholdsup,theBravesleftylikelywon’tcontinuetoreceiveanaverageof6 .3runsofsupportpergame-- themostamongallqualifiedpitchers.

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